Top-performing tortoise plays bear-market rally by Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch

Yamamoto is certainly making bearish noises. He writes "the consumer remains on life support" and worries that the presence of Paul Volcker on President Obama's economic team means that interest rates will be raised quickly to snuff out the inflation he expects with any business rebound: "This backdrop looks like Japan's decade of malaise. The nightmare might be revisited on the landscape of America."
Still, in his previous letter, dated Jan. 30, Yamamoto did note that "historically a countertrend rally of 30 to 50 percent is not uncommon in a bear market." He said "a substantial surge might be forthcoming" but from lower levels.
And the market promptly provided the lower levels -- the Dow was then above 8000.
Currently, Yamamoto's 15% equity exposure is divided equally between Alexander & Baldwin Inc. (AXB)Alexander & Baldwin Inc Charles Schwab & Co. Inc. (SCHW)Charles Schwab & Co., Inc (SLB) Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB)
He recommended additional 5% commitments at or below $17.75, $10.50 and $33.75 respectively.
Yamamoto also recommended an additional 10% commitment to iShares:FTSE/Xinhua (FXIiShares:FTSE/Xinhua
FXI) below $24, and 5% each to Helmerich & Payne Inc. (HPHelmerich & Payne, Inc
HP) $21.25 or below, and Rydex:Juno Fund;Inv (RYJUXRydex:Juno Fund;Inv
RYJUX) at $13.25 or below.
Yamamoto warns sternly in every issue: "Don't go chasing after a stock ... If the stock is selling below our recommended price, chances are you are getting a better bargain. If it's above our recommended price, wait for the stock to drop back. If not, look at our other selections."
On his inverse bond play, he wrote in January: "In the foreseeable future, perhaps within months, a top for the bond market could be in the offing. Still, as in every bubble, a final push to the peak takes time to materialize."

PETER BRIMELOW
Top-performing tortoise plays bear-market rally

By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EDT March 12, 2009NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- So was that the much-anticipated bear market rally? Two investment letter hares suspect so, but a top-performing tortoise has put out a hopeful claw.
I call Stealth Stock Daily's Dennis Slothower and Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell hares because they put out commentaries after every market close, making my job much easier.
Slothower is a new star, who actually made money in the Crash of 2008. (See Dec. 4, 2008 column.)
Last night, he stayed 100% in cash, saying "I can't see how the stock market can get a foothold here if the credit markets continue to deteriorate."
Russell is a renowned long-time permabear whose record has been damaged by paradoxically going briefly bullish at the top in 2007. (See Sept. 19, 2008 column.) He didn't think Tuesday's follow-through was strong enough to change his renewed bearish stance. But he said last night that, for younger subscribers with lower blood pressure, "a speculative position in Dow Diamonds ETF (DIADow Diamonds ETF
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DIA) with a stop-loss at 64 is an interesting trade."
I call The Yamamoto Forecast's Irwin Yamamoto a tortoise because he only publishes once a month -- and only a few laconic pages at that. Yet Yamamoto too is one of the stars of the Crash of 2008, and his strong record extends much further back. (See Oct. 29, 2008 column.)
For 2008, Yamamoto is up 6.06% by Hulbert Financial Digest count, vs. a 43.42% loss for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000. Over the past three years, the letter has achieved a 5.25% annualized gain, vs. a loss of 15.19% annualized for the total return DJ-Wilshire 5000. Over the past five years, the letter has achieved a. 8.02% annualized gain, vs. a 6.14% annualized loss for the total return DJ-W 5000.
In his most recent letter, dated March 5, Yamamoto was coy about his (relative) bullishness, pointing out that he was only 15% in stocks. But this was partly because price targets on all his recommendations weren't reached. And, in contrast, he's been completely out of the market most of the last year.
Yamamoto is certainly making bearish noises. He writes "the consumer remains on life support" and worries that the presence of Paul Volcker on President Obama's economic team means that interest rates will be raised quickly to snuff out the inflation he expects with any business rebound: "This backdrop looks like Japan's decade of malaise. The nightmare might be revisited on the landscape of America."
Still, in his previous letter, dated Jan. 30, Yamamoto did note that "historically a countertrend rally of 30 to 50 percent is not uncommon in a bear market." He said "a substantial surge might be forthcoming" but from lower levels.
And the market promptly provided the lower levels -- the Dow was then above 8000.
Currently, Yamamoto's 15% equity exposure is divided equally between Alexander & Baldwin Inc. (AXBAlexander & Baldwin Inc
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AXB) , Charles Schwab & Co. Inc. (SCHWCharles Schwab & Co., Inc
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SCHW) and Schlumberger Ltd. (SLBSchlumberger Limited
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SLB) . He recommended additional 5% commitments at or below $17.75, $10.50 and $33.75 respectively.
Yamamoto also recommended an additional 10% commitment to iShares:FTSE/Xinhua (FXIiShares:FTSE/Xinhua
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FXI) below $24, and 5% each to Helmerich & Payne Inc. (HPHelmerich & Payne, Inc
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HP) $21.25 or below, and Rydex:Juno Fund;Inv (RYJUXRydex:Juno Fund;Inv
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RYJUX) at $13.25 or below.
Yamamoto warns sternly in every issue: "Don't go chasing after a stock ... If the stock is selling below our recommended price, chances are you are getting a better bargain. If it's above our recommended price, wait for the stock to drop back. If not, look at our other selections."
On his inverse bond play, he wrote in January: "In the foreseeable future, perhaps within months, a top for the bond market could be in the offing. Still, as in every bubble, a final push to the peak takes time to materialize."