Monday, July 4, 2011

Quotes The Forever Portfolio

Currently reading the forever portfolio by Jame Altucher
This book is trying to answer the following questions
What are the Tidal wave-like demographic forces taking shape around the world that we can surf on top of?

What are the methods for identifying opportunites and companies in each demographic trend that we focus on?

A simple stock system
An example of a simple system that historically has done well in both bull and bear markets and does not apply any quantum mechanics or chaos theory. It takes advantage of the fact that the so called dumb money tends to pile into (or pull out of) a stock when a trend has played out.
About five years ago a specialist on the New York Stock Exchange taught me this trick. He said if a company has bad news, wait three days, then buy. I tested the system on all the NASDAQ 100 stocks over the past ten years.

If a stock is down three straight days, buy the next morning at the open. If you own a stock and it's up two days in a row, sell it the next day at the open.
The idea behind this that the trends run out fast. after two consecutive days up, it is reasonable to expect a stock to slow down. After three down days in a row, all of the sellers are done.
This is not always true. Often a stock goes down many more days than three. When it does, in this system you buy more. But if it goes up two days in a row you sell.
Furthermore, if you want to risk management, do not use a stop-loss. An investor using a stop-loss takes a stock position and says "If I lose 10%, then I am going to sell this position and stop my losses." Instead, it's better to keep position sizes small enough so that you never have to worry while you sleep at night about any one position. You have to give it a chance to play out. If you are nervous about a stock going down 50%, keep position sizes small and make as many trades as possible.

Diaster investing
Whenever there's a disaster, remember this tatic:
WAIT A WEEK, THEN BUY QQQQ AND SPY.
Get the benefits of the resilience of the US Economy.
Don't worry about making money back in one day, but know with confidence that the markets will bounce back.